Comrades,
With PM Albo still toying
with the idea of visiting Kyiv despite saying he doesn't have the time
after he's tidied up some residual issues on the sidelines of the NATO
Meeting, maybe it's time for a rudimentary look see at the current
situation where there are no winners in simple terms.
After exactly four months of total war, Russia now occupies roughly 19-21% of Ukrainian territory. That includes the Crimea and parts of the Donbas that were annexed/taken over in 2014. To give you an idea of just how huge Ukraine is, this is what that area looks like transposed on other parts of Europe.
How Vlad the Impaler could have ever imagined he could conquer the whole of the Ukraine after losing the battle of Kyiv is beyond belief. There's a very very long to way to go to recreate the USSR, let alone the mythical Russian Empire. The Ruskies are probably looking at 30-35,000 dead at this stage, and wounded or captured would be four to five times that number. Ukrainian casualties are probably well less than half that. The current Russian tactic of concentrating forces and "outshelling" the Ukrainians 10-1 in artillery duels, will only see gun barrels wear out at an alarming rate, and ammunition is not infinite. According to latest guesstimates, Russia has lost about 620 heavy artillery pieces (not including tracked artillery or rocket launchers), out of a total of around 1,570 pieces that are currently capable of active service. There are many more thousands "in reserve", but that's one helluvan attrition rate. Russia may well "win" the war, but it would take years, maybe decades on current progress, by which time Putin would be dead (so too DJ Trump!).
Hard times ahead, for everyone. Thanks Vlad.
