Comrades,
Sheesh, it's been a busy week for the Miracle of Democracy.
So, here's some light lunchtime reading for you.
First, the the Dude-in-Charge in Turkey, having easily survived a coup d'état last year, runs a Constitutional referendum to consolidate his vice-like grip on power, possibily forever, and then manufactures only a narrow win for the "yes" case.
A clever man with popular and military support, or a ruthless despot.
You be the judge.
Good luck to a marvellous country, hopelessly divided along sectarian lines.
Then, the British PM, Theresa May, sticks her heavily pearl be-decked neck on the chopping block by calling a snap General Election, with a seven week campaign.
Naked, blatant, unashamed Tory opportunism at it's worst.
The aim is, of course, to take advantage of a "weak and divided" Labour Party - let's face it, Jeremy Corbyn is not exactly an ideal spokesmodel for the Pinko cause - and significantly increase her slim majority in the House of Commons and obtain a clear Conservative mandate to ram through Brexit with an iron first, Maggie Thatcher-style.
She's also on a personal self-justification mission and wants to legitimise her rule by being elected in her own right.
But be careful of what you wish for, Tess.
Last time out, the British electorate proved entirely impossible to predict, and now the Greens are starting to talk about some sort of hastily cobbled together ramshackle coalition with Labour and the Lib-Dems in a likely fruitless quest to seize power by stealth, while the right-wing UKIP appears to be a spent political force after riding the crest of the Brexit wave.
Also, an excellent opportunity for Nicola Sturgeon of Scotland to organise a huge protest vote to enforce her demand for a second referendum on independence from the UK; to cast the Scots adrift in the North Sea and float off somewhere in the general direction of Scandanavia.
And, finally, who on earth can read perpetually fractured French politics?
Not even The Great de Gaulle - who was called upon to "save" France, not once, but twice - had the faintest idea how it worked.
De Gaulle's entire raison d'être was to hang onto power by whatever means necessary [almost always by referendum], while asking himself before sigining any legislative instrument "what would a dirt-poor farmer in the Dordogne without heating in winter think of this?"
So there's nothing for it, but to run a market on the likely result in the French Presidential race.
No-one has a snowflakes chance in hell of winning Sunday's first round of balloting outright, so it's a race for the top two [no third dividend] to contest the two-horse run-off on May 7th, with the winner to move into the swanky Palais de l'Élysée for the next five years.
So there's still some distance to run, and for the first time, neither of the two leading candidates come from the hitherto mainstream political Establishment.
Incumbent President François Hollande will retire gracefully and handsomely from the game; very well looked after indeed on a personal pension of €15,000 a month, an "appropriate" luxe apartment in Paris "suitably furnished and equipped" fully paid for by the state, a nice office with nine state-paid staff, including a butler and personal secretary, a free car with two full-time drivers, two full-time Gendarme for security, free unlimited world-wide business class travel on Air France, and a complimentary saloon passage on all French bullet trains.
Toot! Toot!
10/8 ON (Fav.) Emmanuel Macron, En Marche!
Self-avowed centrist. Earmarked from birth as a future President of France. Former merchant banker and un-elected finance minister in current Socialist Govt. Highly educated technocrat and policy wonk. Most unusual, highly unorthodox domestic arrangements adds to French appeal. Late out of the starting gates, but has had all the running in the race. Formed own political politcal party with an amorphous policy platform known as "Macron Law" as a personal vehicle with solid support across all classes as a brilliant "moderate". Considered by many to be too young for the Presidency at age 39, but still has wide appeal across all age groups. Very well placed to reach the run-off as a "steady as she goes" compromise candidate. Go well.
4/1. Marine Le Pen, Front National. Hardnosed right-wing extreme nationalist isolationist, with form. Ex-lawyer. Twice divorced. Daughter of 88 y-o Jean-Marie Le Pen, the 'grandfather' of the French right-wing. Hates Muslims, and has campaigned on closing borders, exiting the EU, deporting 'illegals', closing mosques etc etc etc. Extremely popular among the xenophobic disappointed disposessed. Big in la sud. Early front runner, but could struggle to fend off a broad bloc of Left votes in the straight. Widely tipped to make the run-off. Big chance.
5/1. François Fillon, Les Républicains. Old school conservative. Epitome of "old money". Lives in a 12th century château in the Loire. Former Lawyer. Tainted by scandal over paying Welsh wife and two children public money to do nothing. But hey, it is France after all. Solid hope despite disrupted campaign but running well in the final stretch, however may well fall at the last hurdle and miss the run off. Has the Catholic Zombie vote cornered, and chasing the vast middle class vote with standard Tory policies. Looms as a dark horse, watch late betting.
15/1. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, La France Insoumise. Commo firebrand and brilliant orator. Veteran political hard-nut of the extreme Left. Big in la nord. Enjoying a late surge of support among disaffected Pinko yoof. About as left as left can get. Wildcard in the pack as they're coming down the straight. Not this time. Place chance best.
b>33/1. Benoît Hamon, Parti Socialiste. Agarian socialist. Poor ol' Benoît. Never wanted to run but was effectively drafted after incumbent Hollande decided not to seek a second term on the grounds of being the most unpopular President in living memory. Has the official support of the Greens, who are not running a candidate for the first time since '69. Has had a hard time being heard above the noise, and the party is on the nose with the electorate. Honest toiler, with good support in la nord, and has run best race he could under difficult circumstances. Out of his class here. Distant place best bet.
100/1. François Asselineau, Union Populaire Républicaine.
Euro-atheist. Major leauge fan of bringing back the Franc. Has some financial smarts, but will only attract funny money in the betting ring. Already outrun by this field.
200/1. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Debout la République.
Gaullist. Never risen above being one of thousands of local mayors. Lucky to be in the race after securing the necessary 500 dignatory signatures. Political lightweight. Little to no hope.
500/1. Nathalie Arthaud, Lutte Ouvrière.
Reformed Trotskyite. Self-styled champion of the workers. Her party splintered from the Commo's back in '39, and have been largely forgotten since. Has some support in la nord but is bleeding votes to other Pinko's. Never won a race, never will. Avoid.
500/1. Philippe Poutou, Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste. Orthodox Marxist. Avid trade unionist, former hunger striker, and thinks of himself as some kind of revolutionary. Will muster votes in factory's he's trying to keep open.Will garner support on a platfom to reduce working week to 32 hours and lowering retirement age to 60. Little support in the market. Disregard.
500/1. Jean Lassalle, Independent Centrist.
Career independent politician. Lacks quality in this field. No chance.
1000/1. Jacques Cheminade, Elderly Independent Lunatic.
Follower of the crazed Lyndon LaRouche. Conspiracy theorist par excellence. Punters wonder how he got into the race as the "hopeless joke" candidate. Quintessential French utter nutter. Last placing highly likely. Save your money.
Happy democratic punting.
Have fun!
(originally published 21-04-17)
